China's oil demand enters a stable period
author: Ann
2025-03-21
The global energy landscape has reached an important milestone - China's oil fuel consumption has reached a turning point for the first time after a decade of sustained growth. According to energynews, an authoritative media in the energy field, China's daily oil demand fell 2.5% from the peak in 2021 to 8.1 million barrels. Although this figure is still higher than the level in 2019, it marks that the energy consumption model dominated by industrial expansion has officially become history. This quiet energy revolution is not only a microcosm of China's economic transformation, but also a key footnote to the global carbon neutrality process.
From the data dimension, the trajectory of demand shrinkage is clearly discernible. As the former world factory, China's industrial sector has long occupied half of oil consumption, but in 2024, the proportion of manufacturing fell below 40% for the first time, and the contribution of service and technology-intensive industries exceeded 60%. The transformation of the economic structure has directly weakened the dependence on fossil fuels. Coupled with the 5% GDP growth rate (lower than the pre-epidemic average of 6.5%), the demand for industrial oil has shrunk significantly. More symbolically, the construction industry, which was once the main base for diesel consumption, saw a sharp drop of 4.1% in diesel demand that year due to the deep adjustment of the real estate market, becoming the most intuitive footnote to the collapse of demand.
The energy substitution effect has become an accelerator of transformation. The penetration rate of electric vehicles has exceeded the 50% mark, directly reducing gasoline consumption by 3.5%; the proportion of natural gas in road freight has increased to 18%, forming a secondary substitution for diesel. In the field of transportation infrastructure, the high-speed rail network of more than 50,000 kilometers has covered 80% of cities with a population of one million. This "time and space compression effect" not only reconstructs the flow of people, but also reduces the growth rate of aviation kerosene demand by 60% compared with ten years ago. It is worth noting that despite the overall pressure on fuel consumption, petrochemical products have shown a special growth curve-the oil consumption of plastics, synthetic fibers and other products will increase by 4.8% in 2024, revealing the complexity of energy transformation and the gradual reconstruction of the industrial chain.
Placing China's trajectory in the global coordinate system, its uniqueness becomes more prominent. While oil consumption in emerging markets such as India and Brazil will maintain a growth rate of 3.2% and 2.8% respectively in 2024, China's demand curve will turn downward ahead of schedule. Compared with OECD countries, the latter's per capita oil consumption is still four times that of China. This contrast reveals the generational differences in the pace of energy transformation between developed and developing countries. The historical mirror provides an important reference: when South Korea's per capita GDP exceeded US$20,000 in 1996, oil demand unexpectedly stagnated, mainly due to public transportation optimization and energy efficiency improvement. China's current unit GDP energy consumption is only 45% of that in 2005, indicating that the peak demand may arrive earlier than some institutions predict in 2030.
In the deep logic of this energy revolution, the "dual carbon" strategy is like an invisible hand. According to the International Energy Agency's forecast, China's electric vehicle ownership will exceed 100 million by 2030, and traditional fuel consumption may drop by another 15% from the current level. The counter-trend growth of petrochemical product consumption implies that new energy substitution and the extension of the traditional industrial chain are not contradictory. This dynamic balance is not only the new normal in China's energy security game, but also the inevitable path for sustainable development in the post-oil era. As global oil price fluctuations gradually break away from dependence on Chinese demand, and as the consumption elasticity of emerging markets becomes a new variable, the historic turning point in China's oil demand is reshaping the power map and narrative logic of the global energy market.
From the data dimension, the trajectory of demand shrinkage is clearly discernible. As the former world factory, China's industrial sector has long occupied half of oil consumption, but in 2024, the proportion of manufacturing fell below 40% for the first time, and the contribution of service and technology-intensive industries exceeded 60%. The transformation of the economic structure has directly weakened the dependence on fossil fuels. Coupled with the 5% GDP growth rate (lower than the pre-epidemic average of 6.5%), the demand for industrial oil has shrunk significantly. More symbolically, the construction industry, which was once the main base for diesel consumption, saw a sharp drop of 4.1% in diesel demand that year due to the deep adjustment of the real estate market, becoming the most intuitive footnote to the collapse of demand.
The energy substitution effect has become an accelerator of transformation. The penetration rate of electric vehicles has exceeded the 50% mark, directly reducing gasoline consumption by 3.5%; the proportion of natural gas in road freight has increased to 18%, forming a secondary substitution for diesel. In the field of transportation infrastructure, the high-speed rail network of more than 50,000 kilometers has covered 80% of cities with a population of one million. This "time and space compression effect" not only reconstructs the flow of people, but also reduces the growth rate of aviation kerosene demand by 60% compared with ten years ago. It is worth noting that despite the overall pressure on fuel consumption, petrochemical products have shown a special growth curve-the oil consumption of plastics, synthetic fibers and other products will increase by 4.8% in 2024, revealing the complexity of energy transformation and the gradual reconstruction of the industrial chain.
Placing China's trajectory in the global coordinate system, its uniqueness becomes more prominent. While oil consumption in emerging markets such as India and Brazil will maintain a growth rate of 3.2% and 2.8% respectively in 2024, China's demand curve will turn downward ahead of schedule. Compared with OECD countries, the latter's per capita oil consumption is still four times that of China. This contrast reveals the generational differences in the pace of energy transformation between developed and developing countries. The historical mirror provides an important reference: when South Korea's per capita GDP exceeded US$20,000 in 1996, oil demand unexpectedly stagnated, mainly due to public transportation optimization and energy efficiency improvement. China's current unit GDP energy consumption is only 45% of that in 2005, indicating that the peak demand may arrive earlier than some institutions predict in 2030.
In the deep logic of this energy revolution, the "dual carbon" strategy is like an invisible hand. According to the International Energy Agency's forecast, China's electric vehicle ownership will exceed 100 million by 2030, and traditional fuel consumption may drop by another 15% from the current level. The counter-trend growth of petrochemical product consumption implies that new energy substitution and the extension of the traditional industrial chain are not contradictory. This dynamic balance is not only the new normal in China's energy security game, but also the inevitable path for sustainable development in the post-oil era. As global oil price fluctuations gradually break away from dependence on Chinese demand, and as the consumption elasticity of emerging markets becomes a new variable, the historic turning point in China's oil demand is reshaping the power map and narrative logic of the global energy market.
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