International oil prices are under pressure and fluctuate, and the game between Russian oil exports and OPEC's production increase intensifies
author: Ann
2025-03-25
International crude oil futures prices fell slightly, with Brent crude oil May contract closing down $0.25 to $71.91/barrel, and WTI crude oil futures slightly down $0.20 to $68.08/barrel. The market is under pressure mainly due to the prospect of increased Russian crude oil exports, while investors are closely watching the complex game between OPEC+'s production cut policy and Iran's supply recovery.
Market analysis shows that despite the continued Western sanctions, India and other countries have increased their purchasing efforts, and Russia has expanded exports through gray channels, offsetting some of the sanctions. Fujitsu Securities analyst Toshitaka Tazawa pointed out that the market expects Russia's oil exports to continue to grow, which has a significant impact on oil prices. Data shows that Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in February increased by 12% from January, breaking through 8 million barrels/day for three consecutive months.
The latest OPEC+ resolution announced last Thursday showed that seven member countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, agreed to further cut production to compensate for the previous overproduction. However, the production cut (about 166,000 barrels per day) will be completely covered by the overall production increase plan (138,000 barrels per day) starting from April, which actually forms a dual mechanism of "reduction compensation + incremental hedging". IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong believes that this policy design not only maintains the seriousness of the production cut agreement, but also avoids excessive tightening, but may aggravate investors' confusion about supply expectations.
Changes in US energy information have also attracted attention. Baker Hughes data showed that as of March 21, the total number of oil and gas rigs in the United States ended a three-week decline, and natural gas rigs increased by 2 to 102, indicating that the activity of unconventional oil and gas development has rebounded. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report showed that as of March 18, the net long position of WTI crude oil held by hedge funds fell sharply by 22,909 lots to 56,328 lots from the previous week, hitting a six-week low. This reflects that professional investors are skeptical about the breakthrough of the key price of $70 per barrel and are worried that the improvement in supply and demand will be slower than expected.
Despite the increase in short-term volatility, geopolitical risks still provide price support. The negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement are deadlocked, and the potential recovery of its 1.3 million barrels per day exports remains uncertain. In addition, the continued internal turmoil in oil-producing countries such as Nigeria and Libya may also trigger supply disruption risks at any time. The current oil price is in a sensitive range, and the fluctuation of 70-80 US dollars per barrel may become the norm. The market will focus on the latest guidance on production policy at the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Meeting on April 3, and the substantial progress of Iran's crude oil returning to the international market.
Market analysis shows that despite the continued Western sanctions, India and other countries have increased their purchasing efforts, and Russia has expanded exports through gray channels, offsetting some of the sanctions. Fujitsu Securities analyst Toshitaka Tazawa pointed out that the market expects Russia's oil exports to continue to grow, which has a significant impact on oil prices. Data shows that Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in February increased by 12% from January, breaking through 8 million barrels/day for three consecutive months.
The latest OPEC+ resolution announced last Thursday showed that seven member countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, agreed to further cut production to compensate for the previous overproduction. However, the production cut (about 166,000 barrels per day) will be completely covered by the overall production increase plan (138,000 barrels per day) starting from April, which actually forms a dual mechanism of "reduction compensation + incremental hedging". IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong believes that this policy design not only maintains the seriousness of the production cut agreement, but also avoids excessive tightening, but may aggravate investors' confusion about supply expectations.
Changes in US energy information have also attracted attention. Baker Hughes data showed that as of March 21, the total number of oil and gas rigs in the United States ended a three-week decline, and natural gas rigs increased by 2 to 102, indicating that the activity of unconventional oil and gas development has rebounded. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report showed that as of March 18, the net long position of WTI crude oil held by hedge funds fell sharply by 22,909 lots to 56,328 lots from the previous week, hitting a six-week low. This reflects that professional investors are skeptical about the breakthrough of the key price of $70 per barrel and are worried that the improvement in supply and demand will be slower than expected.
Despite the increase in short-term volatility, geopolitical risks still provide price support. The negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement are deadlocked, and the potential recovery of its 1.3 million barrels per day exports remains uncertain. In addition, the continued internal turmoil in oil-producing countries such as Nigeria and Libya may also trigger supply disruption risks at any time. The current oil price is in a sensitive range, and the fluctuation of 70-80 US dollars per barrel may become the norm. The market will focus on the latest guidance on production policy at the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Meeting on April 3, and the substantial progress of Iran's crude oil returning to the international market.
مركز البحوث والتنمية الاتجاه البولى يوريا الشحوم
الفرق بين ثاني كبريتيد الموليبدينوم الجرافيت الشحوم
