International differences in forecast of China's oil consumption
author: Ann
2025-03-27
What is the total amount of oil consumption in China? This basic data, which should be clear, has caused continuous controversy in the international energy community. With the release of the latest forecast data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the three major institutions have shown significant differences in their judgments on China's oil consumption, and the long-term absence of domestic official data has plunged the market into a "data fog", exposing the deep-seated hidden dangers caused by the lag in the energy statistics system.
According to the latest IEA "Oil Market Report", China's oil consumption is expected to reach 16.84 million barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 11.6% from 2022. The agency emphasized that petrochemical raw material demand will contribute 60% of the consumption increase, among which the growth in demand for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and ethane is particularly significant. OPEC gave a more optimistic forecast in its "Monthly Oil Market Report": China's consumption will jump to 17 million barrels per day in 2025 and further increase to 17.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with an average annual increase of 300,000 barrels per day. It particularly pointed out that although diesel demand is under pressure due to the popularity of natural gas trucks, petrochemical demand and aviation kerosene growth will form a hedge. In contrast, EIA's "Short-Term Energy Outlook" appears relatively cautious, predicting that China's consumption will be 16.58 million barrels per day in 2025 and 16.8 million barrels per day in 2026, with an increase significantly lower than the previous two. The agency specifically mentioned that China's refinery processing volume in 2024 will drop by 500,000 barrels per day from the historical high in 2023, mainly due to the shrinking demand for transportation fuels, but the demand for petrochemical raw materials will still support the total consumption.
Behind the differences in the forecasts of the three major agencies, it reflects the lag of China's energy statistics system. Since March 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission has stopped publishing data on apparent consumption of refined oil products, and the latest public data from the National Bureau of Statistics remains at 680 million tons in 2022. This information vacuum not only leads to a lack of anchor points for international forecasts, but also directly affects domestic policy making and market decisions. "The substitution effect of new energy vehicles has been overstated." Energy expert Wang Nengquan pointed out that although the number of new energy vehicles has exceeded 31.4 million, traditional fuel vehicles still account for 91.1% of the total number of motor vehicles. Data from the Ministry of Public Security showed that the total number of motor vehicles in the country will reach 453 million in 2024, an increase of 35.83 million over the previous year, of which new energy vehicles only account for 41.83% of newly registered vehicles. "Without the support of authoritative consumption data, there is no basis for simply inferring a decline in oil demand."
The negative impact of missing data is emerging. In the international market, the consumption fog of China, as the world's largest oil importer, directly led to a difference of 460,000 barrels per day (2025) between the IEA and OPEC forecasts. This uncertainty has exacerbated the volatility of international oil prices. At the domestic level, oil refining companies are in a passive position in capacity expansion and import strategies due to the lack of consumption guidance. China's crude oil imports in 2024 will be 200,000 barrels per day less than in 2023, and some new integrated refining and chemical projects will be forced to postpone their commissioning. More seriously, energy transformation policy making is losing data support. A researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission warned: "Without an accurate consumption baseline, carbon neutrality path planning is like a blind man touching an elephant." It is estimated that if the actual consumption in 2025 is 5% higher than the IEA forecast, it means that an additional 120 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions will be required each year.
It is urgent to establish an authoritative energy statistics system. Experts suggest building a "three-in-one" data disclosure mechanism: the National Bureau of Statistics releases subdivided consumption data on a monthly basis, the General Administration of Customs simultaneously discloses the import structure, and industry associations establish a terminal consumption monitoring platform. At the same time, we can learn from the experience of the US EIA to establish an energy consumption index covering the transportation, industrial, and residential sectors to form a dynamic early warning system. "Data transparency is an important dimension of energy security." Wang Nengquan emphasized, "As a global energy consumption superpower, China should play a data-leading role in global energy governance. Establishing an authoritative statistical system is not only responsible for the market, but also a guarantee for national strategic security."
As the global energy transformation enters the deep water zone, the "data fog" of China's oil consumption needs to be dispelled. Only by establishing a transparent and timely statistical disclosure mechanism can we seize the initiative in international games and lay a solid foundation for the domestic energy revolution. This data revolution is not only a need of the industry, but also a key puzzle of national strategy.
According to the latest IEA "Oil Market Report", China's oil consumption is expected to reach 16.84 million barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 11.6% from 2022. The agency emphasized that petrochemical raw material demand will contribute 60% of the consumption increase, among which the growth in demand for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and ethane is particularly significant. OPEC gave a more optimistic forecast in its "Monthly Oil Market Report": China's consumption will jump to 17 million barrels per day in 2025 and further increase to 17.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with an average annual increase of 300,000 barrels per day. It particularly pointed out that although diesel demand is under pressure due to the popularity of natural gas trucks, petrochemical demand and aviation kerosene growth will form a hedge. In contrast, EIA's "Short-Term Energy Outlook" appears relatively cautious, predicting that China's consumption will be 16.58 million barrels per day in 2025 and 16.8 million barrels per day in 2026, with an increase significantly lower than the previous two. The agency specifically mentioned that China's refinery processing volume in 2024 will drop by 500,000 barrels per day from the historical high in 2023, mainly due to the shrinking demand for transportation fuels, but the demand for petrochemical raw materials will still support the total consumption.
Behind the differences in the forecasts of the three major agencies, it reflects the lag of China's energy statistics system. Since March 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission has stopped publishing data on apparent consumption of refined oil products, and the latest public data from the National Bureau of Statistics remains at 680 million tons in 2022. This information vacuum not only leads to a lack of anchor points for international forecasts, but also directly affects domestic policy making and market decisions. "The substitution effect of new energy vehicles has been overstated." Energy expert Wang Nengquan pointed out that although the number of new energy vehicles has exceeded 31.4 million, traditional fuel vehicles still account for 91.1% of the total number of motor vehicles. Data from the Ministry of Public Security showed that the total number of motor vehicles in the country will reach 453 million in 2024, an increase of 35.83 million over the previous year, of which new energy vehicles only account for 41.83% of newly registered vehicles. "Without the support of authoritative consumption data, there is no basis for simply inferring a decline in oil demand."
The negative impact of missing data is emerging. In the international market, the consumption fog of China, as the world's largest oil importer, directly led to a difference of 460,000 barrels per day (2025) between the IEA and OPEC forecasts. This uncertainty has exacerbated the volatility of international oil prices. At the domestic level, oil refining companies are in a passive position in capacity expansion and import strategies due to the lack of consumption guidance. China's crude oil imports in 2024 will be 200,000 barrels per day less than in 2023, and some new integrated refining and chemical projects will be forced to postpone their commissioning. More seriously, energy transformation policy making is losing data support. A researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission warned: "Without an accurate consumption baseline, carbon neutrality path planning is like a blind man touching an elephant." It is estimated that if the actual consumption in 2025 is 5% higher than the IEA forecast, it means that an additional 120 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions will be required each year.
It is urgent to establish an authoritative energy statistics system. Experts suggest building a "three-in-one" data disclosure mechanism: the National Bureau of Statistics releases subdivided consumption data on a monthly basis, the General Administration of Customs simultaneously discloses the import structure, and industry associations establish a terminal consumption monitoring platform. At the same time, we can learn from the experience of the US EIA to establish an energy consumption index covering the transportation, industrial, and residential sectors to form a dynamic early warning system. "Data transparency is an important dimension of energy security." Wang Nengquan emphasized, "As a global energy consumption superpower, China should play a data-leading role in global energy governance. Establishing an authoritative statistical system is not only responsible for the market, but also a guarantee for national strategic security."
As the global energy transformation enters the deep water zone, the "data fog" of China's oil consumption needs to be dispelled. Only by establishing a transparent and timely statistical disclosure mechanism can we seize the initiative in international games and lay a solid foundation for the domestic energy revolution. This data revolution is not only a need of the industry, but also a key puzzle of national strategy.
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