Oil demand and supply forecasts adjusted
author: Ann
2025-04-16
The escalation of trade tensions is like a storm that has swept the global oil market, making the market outlook foggy. The International Energy Agency (IEA), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and financial giant Goldman Sachs have all released reports, lowering their expectations for oil demand growth and predicting oversupply. These news have undoubtedly added to the already turbulent oil market.
IEA sharply lowers its forecast for oil demand growth
On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) sharply lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year due to escalating trade tensions. In its monthly report, it cut its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 730,000 barrels per day. Not only that, it also expects global oil demand growth to slow further to 690,000 barrels per day in 2026. The IEA clearly pointed out: "The deteriorating global economic outlook prompted us to lower our forecast for oil demand growth this year when trade tensions suddenly escalated sharply in early April." This clearly shows that the negative impact of trade frictions on the global economy is being transmitted to the oil demand side.
At the same time, the IEA also issued another warning: the sharp drop in oil prices has put the US shale oil industry in trouble. According to the latest energy survey report of the Dallas Federal Reserve, shale oil producers believe that oil prices need to stabilize at US$65 per barrel to make drilling new wells profitable. The current low oil prices have undoubtedly cast a shadow on the development of the US shale oil industry.
OPEC also lowered its demand expectations but was relatively optimistic
Just one day before the IEA released its report, OPEC also took similar measures. However, compared with the IEA, OPEC is more optimistic. In its monthly oil market report, OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 from 1.45 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 from 1.43 million barrels per day to 1.28 million barrels per day. OPEC said the adjustment was mainly based on data from the first quarter of this year and the expected impact of the tariff policy recently announced by the United States on oil demand. This shows that OPEC is also aware of the impact of trade tensions on the oil market, but has a different judgment on demand expectations compared to the IEA.
Goldman Sachs predicts that oversupply will persist for a long time
Goldman Sachs predicts that oversupply will persist for a long time
Goldman Sachs, known as the "flag bearer of commodities", has recently lowered its expectations for oil prices again, becoming a "big short". In its latest analysis, Goldman Sachs pointed out that it expects the global oil market to have an oversupply of 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, and to increase to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. Goldman Sachs believes that the trade war and OPEC+'s relaxation of supply restrictions are exacerbating market pessimism. Goldman Sachs analysts warned that although the market has digested the impact of future inventory increases, a large surplus is expected in 2025 and 2026, which will further suppress oil prices. Analysts expect Brent crude oil to average around $63 per barrel for the rest of the year, but this price is based on the premise that the United States will not fall into a recession and OPEC+ will only increase its supply slightly.
According to various sources, the continued escalation of trade tensions has had a significant impact on the demand and supply pattern of the global oil market. On the demand side, growth expectations have been continuously lowered; on the supply side, Goldman Sachs predicts a long-term oversupply situation. Where will the oil market go in the future? Will it gradually restore balance in the game between all parties, or will it continue to sink under the shadow of trade frictions? Let us continue to pay attention.
زيوت التشحيم يمكن استخدامها لفترة أطول
كاتم الصوت الشحوم خدمة الحياة كم ، مؤقتا لا يمكن أن تستخدم نوعية رديئة ؟
