Non-OPEC+ supply growth slows by 100,000 bpd in 2025
author: Ann
2025-05-16
LONDON, May 14 (Reuters) - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Wednesday released a monthly report that cut its forecast for oil supply growth in the United States and other oil-producing countries outside OPEC+ by 2025, noting that lower oil prices will lead to reduced capital expenditures.
OPEC said in the report that it expects oil supply from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation (OPEC+'s official name) to increase by about 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, down 100,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast. The slowdown in supply growth outside OPEC+ will help OPEC+ balance the market. In recent years, the rapid growth of shale oil in the United States and other countries has continued to put downward pressure on oil prices.
Recently, oil prices have been under significant pressure due to OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production increases in May and June and U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy. Oil prices continued their early losses after the release of the report on Wednesday, with global benchmark Brent crude trading just below $66 a barrel. On May 5, the settlement price of Brent crude oil was close to $60 per barrel, the lowest settlement price since 2021.
OPEC expects exploration and production investment outside OPEC+ to fall by about 5% year-on-year in 2025. Despite the continuous improvement of efficiency and productivity in the oil industry, the decline in upstream exploration and production investment will still pose potential challenges to production levels in 2025 and 2026. In addition, although OPEC still believes that the United States will drive supply growth, it has lowered its expected increase in total global oil production this year from 400,000 barrels per day predicted last month to about 300,000 barrels per day. It is worth noting that OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, and said that although the 90-day trade agreement reached between the United States and China will help reduce market disruptions, there is still uncertainty about future tariff levels.
In terms of production data, the OPEC report showed that OPEC+ crude oil production fell by 106,000 barrels per day to 40.92 million barrels per day in April. Among them, Kazakhstan's production fell by 41,000 barrels per day, ranking first among OPEC+ members. Despite the production cuts, Kazakhstan's production still far exceeds the OPEC+ quota. In addition, production in Iran, Libya and Nigeria also declined to varying degrees. Previously, OPEC+ planned to accelerate production increases in April, May and June to lift production cuts in order to support the market.
OPEC said in the report that it expects oil supply from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation (OPEC+'s official name) to increase by about 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, down 100,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast. The slowdown in supply growth outside OPEC+ will help OPEC+ balance the market. In recent years, the rapid growth of shale oil in the United States and other countries has continued to put downward pressure on oil prices.
Recently, oil prices have been under significant pressure due to OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production increases in May and June and U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy. Oil prices continued their early losses after the release of the report on Wednesday, with global benchmark Brent crude trading just below $66 a barrel. On May 5, the settlement price of Brent crude oil was close to $60 per barrel, the lowest settlement price since 2021.
OPEC expects exploration and production investment outside OPEC+ to fall by about 5% year-on-year in 2025. Despite the continuous improvement of efficiency and productivity in the oil industry, the decline in upstream exploration and production investment will still pose potential challenges to production levels in 2025 and 2026. In addition, although OPEC still believes that the United States will drive supply growth, it has lowered its expected increase in total global oil production this year from 400,000 barrels per day predicted last month to about 300,000 barrels per day. It is worth noting that OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, and said that although the 90-day trade agreement reached between the United States and China will help reduce market disruptions, there is still uncertainty about future tariff levels.
In terms of production data, the OPEC report showed that OPEC+ crude oil production fell by 106,000 barrels per day to 40.92 million barrels per day in April. Among them, Kazakhstan's production fell by 41,000 barrels per day, ranking first among OPEC+ members. Despite the production cuts, Kazakhstan's production still far exceeds the OPEC+ quota. In addition, production in Iran, Libya and Nigeria also declined to varying degrees. Previously, OPEC+ planned to accelerate production increases in April, May and June to lift production cuts in order to support the market.
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