How much more oil does the world need?
author: Ann
2025-07-25
Recently, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Ghaith said in an exclusive interview with Energy Connects that by 2050, oil will still account for 30% of the global energy structure, and the world will need to invest $18.2 trillion in oil and gas to ensure energy supply in the middle of this century.
How much oil does the world need in the future? In the process of global energy transformation, one fact that cannot be ignored is that the deployment of renewable energy is still lagging behind the growth of overall energy demand, a large part of which still relies on fossil fuels. The world is still in energy increment mode.
How much oil does the world need in the future? In the process of global energy transformation, one fact that cannot be ignored is that the deployment of renewable energy is still lagging behind the growth of overall energy demand, a large part of which still relies on fossil fuels. The world is still in energy increment mode.
How much oil does the world need?
Oil remains the largest source of energy. According to the 2025 edition of the World Energy Statistical Yearbook, global total energy demand increased by 2% in 2024, and oil met 34% of the world's total energy demand. Despite the slowdown, global oil demand still increased by 0.7%, reaching 101.8 million barrels per day for the first time. This figure set a record high. In the past decade, oil demand has increased by an average of 1% per year, almost entirely driven by non-OECD countries.
Fossil fuels continue to support the global energy system in 2024, accounting for 86% of the global energy structure
The United States remains the world's largest oil consumer, accounting for 18.7% of global demand. The United States' daily oil consumption has declined slightly since 2023, but has increased by an average of 0.5% per year over the past decade.
China was once the world's second largest oil consumer, accounting for 16.1% of global demand. By 2024, its daily consumption fell by 1.2% to 16.4 million barrels per day. This decline is significantly different from the average annual increase of 4% over the past decade.
The Statistical Review of World Energy believes that this means that China's oil demand may be showing signs of stagnation. With economic growth slowing and the advancement of transportation electrification, some analysts speculate that China may be approaching its long-term oil demand peak.
Meanwhile, India's oil consumption continued to soar, increasing by 3.1% year-on-year to 5.6 million barrels per day. India's economic expansion and growing middle class continue to drive economic growth, and it is expected to become the world's third largest oil consumer in a few years.
Oil demand in OECD countries was little changed (+0.1%), while non-OECD demand grew by 1.2%.
Oil demand in OECD countries was little changed (+0.1%), while non-OECD demand grew by 1.2%.
However, the hard data for 2024 does not give a clear answer for the future. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC remain extremely divided on the forecast of peak oil demand.
In its annual Oil 2025 report, the IEA said that China's oil demand is expected to peak in 2027, two years earlier than previously thought, and China is the world's largest crude oil importer.
According to the latest IEA estimates, global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day between 2024 and 2030, reaching a level of about 105.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2030. Based on current policy settings and market trends, global annual oil production growth will slow from about 700,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 to a trickle in the next few years, with a small decline expected in 2030.
In stark contrast to the IEA's forecast, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Ghaith wrote in the foreword of the World Oil Outlook 2025, which was just released last week: "Oil demand will not peak." OPEC believes that oil demand will not peak in the short term, and global oil consumption will continue to rise in the next few decades.
In view of the slowdown in China's demand growth, OPEC has lowered its forecast for oil demand growth in all years from 2025 to 2029. However, it still believes that global economic development, growing oil demand, and the increase in the global population and middle class will support demand growth in the next few decades.
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